Fool Me Once, Shame on Me.. (2008 South Carolina Primary Review)

Despite a Massive Win on Saturday, Don't Jump and Place Obama at the Head of the Pack

by Jerell Jones



When the South Carolina primary results were official and Barack Obama’s beatdown of Hilary Clinton (and John Edwards, in his own home state) was an actual occurrence and not inaccurate poll prognostications like the events in New Hamsphire, you know damn well that there are some in America out there who think Saturday signaled the time when the election is now in Obama’s hands.

Seeing the 55% to 27% gap between him and Bill Clinton’s significant other (along with Edwards disappointing 18%) led some to proclaim that this is, or will be, the turning point in a presidential race where it feels like the entire world is voting with how big the turnouts have been so far in the January primaries and caucuses. And it also feels so big because all of Earth’s billion eyes appear to be focused on it, because even if the United States does not pull the world’s financial strings (yes America, our days of fiscal domination is possibly over thanks to the current recession, continued borrowing of currency, and the growth of China), it still is the country that holds enough cards of a premier power, if tediously.

That power is in the hands of the Democratic Party to lose, make no mistake about that. And with the 28% victory in a state where the race was originally supposed to go down to the wire like a photo finish was going to occur, some believe out there right now that Obama has once again asserted his impassionate message to overwhelm the combination of “Billary” and the game but punchless Edwards.

In South Carolina, where the core of the Democratic party, the Blacks, are located and not in Iowa, New Hampshire, or Nevada, it was a must win for Obama. Two consecutive defeats gave Hilary back the lead and the confidence. A victory was needed in the worst way, because nothing else would suffice. Obama, black, had to win his own race’s vote to show anyone else in the country still having doubts of his legitimacy to the presidency that they need to wake up and cease their stupidity. Not only did he win that vote and the state, but he won both in a blowout that hadn’t been seen before in this historic two-way battle. A blowout that was not expected to happen did happen, just like a Clinton win in the Granite State. This however, for most, appeared different and more defining; a statement made that has some again proclaiming Obama’s ascendancy to the top and Clinton’s relegation to being a bride maid just like they did in Des Monies and every other city in that state back on the second day of 2008.

Obama dominated in the most important state so far, in the most diverse and true representation of the Democratic Party at this still incipient but crucial stage in the road to the White House. 76% of the black vote secured in South Carolina, college students up his sleeve, and most important, momentum in his team’s hands before “Super Tuesday” should all but seal the nomination for the 44 year-old, right?

Only the foolish and irrational would say a thing like that.

Though the Harvard graduate showed that he can obtain the African-American vote, considered still the base of the “Donkey” party, to cast him as the favorite now is talk of premature minds or undeveloped deep thinking. This race wasn’t decided in Iowa, it was nowhere near finished as most found out in New Hampshire, and it sure as hell didn’t end in Nevada for Obama, a state that peculiarly enough had Ron Paul finish second on the GOP side. The race is not a sudden sprint, but a marathon that will go down to the bitter end. And right now, if anybody is closest to the front runner position in the Democratic Party, it is still the New York Senator.

Clinton, not Obama, is in the lead of several big states apart of a “Super Tuesday” that will be just as memorable as the general election in November. And currently, in some places like California, the race is not even close. In that massively integral state where the number of delegates is rich, the former Fist Lady is leading her younger rival by a whopping 15%, a lead sustained thanks to the strong ties her husband has kept out west over the last decade and a half.

Now, with Saturday’s victory and the sudden endorsement of the Kennedy family now given to him, Obama could close that gap in those 22 remaining states with a needed boost of momentum he didn’t have since he and his party was abased in New England. But this is far away from the beliefs of those figuring the runaway win in South Carolina vaulted him into garnering the nomination from the party.

It hasn’t at all.

In fact, just like they did in New Hampshire, if you think Clinton and her team isn’t going to feverously bounce back, then you need to see where she was at on Saturday evening. She wasn’t licking her wounds from a race that she actually had just as much of a shot at winning as the “bronze-medalists” specialist Edwards. She was right in Nashville, putting South Carolina immediately in her rearview mirror. You can question and criticize her for not even giving her supporters in the “Palmetto State” a speech recognizing their loyalty to her and giving felicitation to Obama for his victory. And you can also point to her sudden exit to Tennessee that she only cares about winning instead of accepting defeat if you feel that way.

No matter, because despite Saturday’s empathetic win, it will take not just one great inning to beat her, it will take a complete game performance. And the same holds true for Clinton, because their camp know that Obama has officially eradicated their aura of invincibility the moment 2008 started. From a simple walk in the park to a massive dash across a battlefield, it is only going to take their best to beat a man whose speeches reinvigorate the tone of Martin Luther King to some. Fittingly that in the week of that momentous American figure’s birthday, the man drawing comparisons to him got a needed and surprisingly easy victory in a state that once again represents the important part of the Democratic Party’s anatomy.

But the African-American vote is not the only part of the party, and in order for the Chicago resident to win, he needs to make the impact amongst middle age whites. So far, Oprah isn’t making a difference with that, as that is still a massive gap he has to make up in order to secure the nomination. It is a group that is once again being overshadowed by those who think Obama’s victory on Saturday has placed all the pressure on Hilary to comeback again. Because that is far from the actual truth, where this race could go all the way to this summer’s convention if it has to.

It was said before, “Obama has all the momentum, Obama is riding high, Hilary is in trouble.” Then water works happened, Obama’s campaign stepping off the gas petal happened, and humiliation on almost all political poll analysts happened.

The scorecard is two victories to Clinton, two victories to Obama (and none for Edwards). But belittle the importance of the former Senator of North Carolina and whether he will stay in the race or not at your own peril, just like you may have or still do either Clinton or Obama. We may have taken the bait the first time, but only those addicted to rash presumptions will get burned when reality’s results reveal themselves to us once again.



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