Really Nate? Really?
Nate Silver is one of the smartest people in the political world today. But not everyone can be fully astute all the times, and today was a rare, RARE case indeed
Elections in thuggish, authoritarian states like Iran need be treated with the utmost skepticism and scrutiny. I can't say I have any real degree of confidence in the official results, which showed Ahmadinejad winning with some 62 percent of the vote.Nate uses that chart to show his beliefs. But Silver is painfully and stunningly wrong here. Way wrong.
There is a statistical analysis making the rounds, however, which purports to show overwhelmingly persuasive evidence that the Iranian election was rigged. I do not find this evidence compelling.
Silver decides to make a connection to U.S. elections as his basis, but it is a terrible comparison. There are strong rumors, and it really happened for sure, that the higher ups (Supreme Leader Khamenei and the others higher ups) didn't even count not some, and not even many, but all, ALL of the votes.
And when you don't count anything, you can't have a similar comparison to any other number unless its a zero.
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