The 3-Guarantees (Aganist the Spread) NFL Thread: Week 4

Here's the three key games I have chosen the place under "The 3-Guarantees Label"

Vikings at Titans: In what will probably be the most physical game of the NFL season, no soft play will be allowed today between these two sides. It will be captivating stuff to see who will win the battles of lines today: Kevin Mawae and Jake Scott versus Pat Williams and Kevin Williams, Matt Birk and Steve Hutchinson versus Albert Haynesworth and Tony Brown. This is no game for the faint of heart.

You would have thought at the beginning of the season that this would come down to quarterback play between Vince Young and Tavaris Jackson. But instead of those young still developing, athletic quarterbacks, a total 180 has taken place with their veteran, pocket passing backups Kerry Collins and Gus Frerotte filling in for them. What a total obverse on both sides.

Really, both of these teams mirror image each other.

Collins is playing at a higher level that Frerotte at the moment, plus add the home field advantage and Jeff Fisher side is looking like the victors in this ultra-physical encounter that will take place today. The spread is short at 3, and that is large enough to give the Titans the cover along with the outright win to remain undefeated.

In the latest installment of the Ohio rivalry, both the Bengals and the Browns are desperate for a win. A lost today by either one of them (which will happen), and their playoff chances will basically be over just a quarter into the year (unless a miracle transpires). With the Bengals getting it together last week against the Giants while the "Dog Pound" in a midst of a Anderson-Quinn QB controversy, the home field advantage for Marvin Lewis side is the final reason for the Stripes to get their first victory of the season. And with them being a one point favorite, a win would be a cover. Bengals and the spread.

Finally, the Redskins against the Cowboys in this acerbic rivalry is giving Jerry Jones bunch a big 10 point spread. The Redskins are getting disprespect here, and so is Jason Campbell, who actually has done a better job of not making terrible throws in comparison to Tony Romo. Though the Cowboys should win this game (and I think they will win this game), it will be close. This general core of the 'Skins team now has always played the Cowboys tough at Texas Stadium, and can certainly defeat them if Romo has a poor outing. The Skins against the 10 points.

And the outright winners for the other games:
Broncos over the Chiefs
Jaguars over the Texans
Saints over the 49ers
Panthers over Atlanta, but it will be close, not a 6.5 blowout that the spread shows
Packers over Bucs
Rams over the Bills in an upset
Chargers in a romp over the Raiders

Monday night pick tomorrow. Enjoy the games.